The BIS Analyzes Why Investing in Artificial Intelligence Still Does Not Boost U.S. GDP
A recent analysis by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reveals a paradox in the technology sector: the enormous funds allocated to developing artificial intelligence have not yet translated into a significant boost for the Gross Domestic Product of the United States, unlike what happened with previous revolutions. The direct macroeconomic effect is slower and more moderate than expected. 🤔
Economic Growth That Takes Time to Arrive
The study points out that, although the AI sector is growing rapidly, its capacity to transform productivity on a national scale is a gradual process. Experts perceive that this technology deeply changes how production is carried out, but those changes are not immediately reflected in broad economic growth figures. The translation into numbers for GDP takes longer to materialize.
Key Factors of Limited Impact:- AI development depends on large initial capital investments in expensive infrastructure.
- The benefits are concentrated in a small group of companies, such as specialized hardware providers.
- Distributing productivity gains to the rest of the economy is a slower process than in past cycles.
The current AI cycle presents key differences with historical moments like the popularization of the internet.
The Shadow of High Debt
The BIS report highlights a potential risk accompanying this boom: the debt accumulated by companies focused on artificial intelligence already exceeds 200 billion dollars. This indebtedness, necessary to finance research and powerful computing infrastructure, generates concern among financial regulators. 🚨
Risks Associated with the AI Sector's Debt:- Much of this debt is in the hands of non-bank actors, which can strain the financial system.
- A market correction or a delay in obtaining the expected returns could destabilize the sector.
- Financing advances requires a level of indebtedness that poses a burden for sustained growth.
Contrast with Past Technological Revolutions
When comparing with electrification or the internet boom, the difference is notable. Those innovations managed to distribute their benefits