On May 18th, asteroid 2026JH2, between 16 and 36 meters in diameter, will pass just 90,917 kilometers from our planet, a distance equivalent to a quarter of the lunar orbit. Although astronomers rule out any risk of collision, the scientific community has focused its attention on this object due to its destructive potential: if it impacted, it would release energy 30 times greater than the Hiroshima bomb, replicating the catastrophe of the Chelyabinsk meteorite in 2013.
3D modeling of trajectory and kinetic energy 🚀
In our Foro3D virtual lab, we have simulated the orbital trajectory of 2026JH2 using data from the ATLAS monitoring system. The 3D animation reveals a grazing approach from the southern hemisphere, with a relative speed of 16.8 km/s. To contextualize the risk, we have superimposed a volumetric model of the Chelyabinsk meteorite (about 20 meters) alongside that of 2026JH2, adjusting the kinetic energy scale. The heat map generated for a typical city shows a total destruction radius of 5 kilometers and structural damage up to 15 kilometers, with a shockwave equivalent to 500 kilotons of TNT. The asteroid's low reflectivity, represented in an albedo graph, explains why it went unnoticed until a few weeks ago.
The challenge of detecting the invisible 🔭
While asteroids over one kilometer in size are almost all cataloged, objects like 2026JH2 remind us of an uncomfortable truth: most building-sized bodies remain unknown until they pass close by. Their dark surface and rapid motion turn them into difficult shadows to track even for advanced telescopes. For now, monitoring is improving, but preventing future catastrophes depends on us continuing to refine our detection and 3D simulation models before one of these silent travelers decides to stay.
Would you simulate the event with Houdini or a game engine?