Amidst the war and global supply disruptions, Iran has managed to increase its oil sales above pre-conflict levels, surpassing 2 million barrels per day. Nearly 90% of this crude has a single buyer: China. Independent Chinese refineries purchase the discounted oil, creating a parallel market that evades Western sanctions. This dynamic has fueled price volatility, which reached $120 per barrel.
Critical Infrastructure and Sanctions Evasion: The Role of Technology 🛰️
The resilience of Iranian exports relies on two technological pillars. On one hand, satellite positioning systems (AIS) are manipulated to obscure the origin and final destination of shipments, facilitating shadow transport. On the other, key infrastructure, such as the Kharg Island terminal, remains operational. Its preservation, despite bombings in the region, suggests the use of advanced air defenses or tacit agreements that prioritize the continuity of energy flows to a primary customer.
The Law of Commercial Gravity: crude always finds its way (at a discount) ⛽
It seems sanctions have a hole the size of the Strait of Hormuz. While prices skyrocket and the official market trembles, Iran and China have set up the most exclusive buy-sell club: Everything for a Barrel. Chinese refineries line up for the discounted crude, and Iranian terminals, pristine amid the smoke of nearby bombings, operate at full capacity. It's a reminder that in geopolitics, supply and demand often write their own rules, bypassing decrees.