Azeri gas for Europe: the same dog with a different energy collar

Azerbaijan signs a deal to send gas to Europe from 2029, with TotalEnergies and ADNOC as partners. The Southern Corridor is presented as the great bet to replace Russian gas and stabilize prices. But Azerbaijani gas is neither cleaner nor cheaper; it is only more distant and expensive to transport. Energy geopolitics changes allies, not logic. ⛽

cinematic aerial view of a gas pipeline stretching across mountainous terrain from Azerbaijan to Europe, a pipeline valve station with TotalEnergies and ADNOC logos on metal control panels, gas flow meters and pressure gauges showing high transport costs, a European flag and a Russian flag fading in the background, pipeline sections being connected by workers in orange safety suits, dramatic sunset lighting casting long shadows over the pipeline, photorealistic industrial visualization, detailed metallic reflections on pipes and valves, cold blue tones contrasting with warm orange sky

Infrastructure and costs of the Southern Corridor: a questionable technical bet 🔧

The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) are the backbone of the project. Their current capacity is around 10 bcm per year, far from the 155 bcm that Russia sent before the crisis. Expanding it requires multi-million dollar investments in compressors and new pipelines. The cost per kilowatt hour will be higher than that of Russian gas, and the 2029 deadline leaves Europe with five winters of technical and commercial uncertainty.

The new friend in the club: welcome, gas dictator 👑

The same people who accused Russia of using energy as a weapon now applaud a regime that imprisons journalists and sells gas without an ecological label. Azerbaijan is a strategic ally, of course, as long as it fills the storage tanks. Energy has no morals: it has a price, a contract, and a delivery date. And the citizen, as always, pays the bill without asking where the gas comes from. Ironies of the market.